How to Find +EV Prices on Novig and Other Prediction Markets
Use the sharp market to decide what a prediction market contract is worth, then take it only when your price is better.
The video explains how prediction market contracts are priced, removes the vig from Pinnacle and Circa to set fair value for game lines, compares player props against the other exchanges, and uses Whale Watch for extra context on liquidity.
Stop asking whether a bet will win and start asking whether your price is better than the market's fair price.
How prediction market contracts and prices work
A sportsbook posts a line and a price, and you decide whether to take it. On a prediction market you buy and sell contracts on whether an event happens, with a yes side and a no side trading at prices other people are willing to accept. A yes contract trading near 60 cents means the market is pricing that outcome at roughly 60%.
Novig, ProphetX, Kalshi and sportsbooks like Pinnacle all price the same events, so their numbers often disagree. When they disagree enough, the useful question is which price sits closer to the true probability, and the video answers it with the sharpest books rather than with a prediction about the game.
Positive EV: paying less than an outcome is worth
Expected value (EV) compares the price you pay with what the outcome is actually worth. If fair odds give an outcome a 55% chance and another market lets you buy it at a 50% price, that difference is your edge.
A +EV bet can still lose and a bad bet can still win, so one result says nothing about the quality of a bet. The goal is to keep getting prices better than the true market price, because only a large sample of those bets shows the edge.
Set game-line fair value from Pinnacle, Circa and the other exchanges
For game lines on Novig, the video compares against five markets: Pinnacle, Circa, Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX. These have the highest limits or no limits at all, which is where sharp bettors put their money and where lines move the most.
Pinnacle and Circa build vig (also called hold), the margin a book adds to make a profit, into both sides of their lines. To get a no-vig fair price you take both sides and strip that margin out first, which the No-Vig Calculator does for you, and then compare the result with the prediction market price you are offered.
Removing the vig in the video's game-line example
No-vig price on the +107 side
No-vig price on the +100 side
The blended fair price from the filter
The Novig price also has to beat these
Let the fair-value filter do the de-vigging
In the Optimizer's Filters tab, the fair value model lets you choose which sharp books carry the most weight. The video uses a game-lines preset weighted on Pinnacle and Circa, and clicking Apply calculates the average fair odds between the two automatically.
A Novig price that beats that fair value and also beats Kalshi, ProphetX and Polymarket is the kind of bet the video takes. A button on the row then opens that market on Novig so you can review it and enter the bet yourself. The same rule works on any prediction market: on Kalshi, for example, you would add Kalshi's trading fee to the price and compare against Novig, ProphetX and Polymarket instead.
For player props, compare the exchanges against each other
Player props follow the same EV process, but the comparison books change. On Novig, the video de-vigs props against the competitive prop markets on Kalshi, ProphetX and Polymarket (or against Novig, ProphetX and Polymarket when you are on Kalshi), because that gives the cleanest comparison.
In the video's example, Max Fried over 16.5 pitcher outs was -130 on Novig and -137 on Kalshi, DFS apps such as PrizePicks, Dabble and Pick6 also favored the over, and PrizePicks had moved its line up to 17. When the consensus fair price is clearly higher than the Novig price, the bet qualifies, with no game logs or recent form involved.
Use Whale Watch for context, then check the price
Whale Watch adds different information: where large amounts of liquidity are landing on specific game lines and props across prediction markets. Markets are information, so a big position is worth a closer look, but a person can bet a lot of money and still be wrong.
The video only acts when the side with heavy money is also +EV against the rest of the market. In its baseball example, about $61,000 sat between Kalshi and Polymarket on an over 8.5 total at the same price Novig offered, and the de-vigged Pinnacle line confirmed that Novig had the best price.
Checking the over 8.5 total from the Whale Watch example
Best available price in the example
Close, but a slightly worse price
No-vig price; Novig pays 5 cents more
None of these signals guarantees a win. A large position only matters when the price you can get still beats fair value and there is enough size at that price, and even then the edge only shows up over many bets.
The prediction market routine from the video
Find the disagreement
Use the Optimizer, Fantasy Props or Whale Watch to spot a prediction market price that differs from the sharp market.
Set fair value
Remove the vig from Pinnacle and Circa for game lines, or compare against the other exchanges for props.
Beat every comparison
Take only prices that beat fair value and the other prediction markets on the same side.
Enter it yourself
Open the market on the prediction market app, confirm the price and size, and place the bet yourself.
Article FAQs
What does a prediction market price mean?
A contract's price works like a probability: a yes contract near 60 cents means the market prices that outcome at roughly 60%. The exact interface differs by platform.
Which books should I compare Novig game lines against?
The video uses Pinnacle and Circa with the vig removed, plus the prices on Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX. Those markets have the highest limits or no limits.
Why are player props compared differently from game lines?
For props, the video compares the competitive prop markets on the other exchanges, such as Kalshi, ProphetX and Polymarket when you are on Novig. That gives the cleanest comparison.
Does Whale Watch tell me what to bet?
No. It shows where large positions and liquidity are, which is context. The video only acts when that side is also +EV against the rest of the market, and you place every bet yourself.
Open the Optimizer
Compare prediction market game lines with no-vig Pinnacle and Circa prices and see which ones beat fair value.