What is expected value (EV) in sports betting?

Expected value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable over time; negative EV (-EV) means you'll lose money. EV = (Win Probability x Profit) - (Loss Probability x Stake).

How do I calculate EV for a bet?

You need two things: the odds being offered and the true probability of winning. Convert odds to implied probability, compare to true probability. If true probability > implied probability, you have +EV. This calculator handles the math for you.

What's a good EV percentage?

Any positive EV is good. Professional bettors typically target +2% to +5% EV on their bets. Even small edges compound significantly over hundreds of bets. A +3% EV bet placed 1,000 times at $100 each yields roughly $3,000 expected profit.

How do I find the true probability of an outcome?

Use sharp sportsbook lines (like Pinnacle or Circa), calculate no-vig odds from multiple books, build your own models, or use consensus odds from betting markets. The key is having an accurate probability estimate independent of the line you're betting.

Does +EV guarantee I'll make money?

Not on any single bet. EV is a long-term concept. You can lose +EV bets and win -EV bets in the short run. But over hundreds or thousands of bets, your results will converge toward your expected value. That's why bankroll management matters.

Whale Watch is Live.Follow whale money today.

See itSee Whale Watch in action

← All Calculators

No-Vig Parlay Kelly Criterion EV / Edge Arbitrage Hedge Bonus Conversion Implied Odds

Expected Value (EV) Calculator

See if a bet is worth it. Find out how much money you can expect to make (or lose) over time.

Inputs

Auto-calculate

Find more +EV prices with Upside tools

Use expected value math alongside public tool guides for sportsbook optimization, game-line comparison, and player prop research.

Sports Betting OptimizerCompare Upside's optimizer workflow for finding +EV bets across sportsbooks.Game Lines OptimizerFind +EV spreads, totals, and moneylines by comparing prices to fair odds.+EV Props OptimizerFind positive expected value player props across DFS apps and sportsbooks.

How to Use This Calculator

Enter the odds you're being offered (American or decimal)
Enter your estimated true probability of winning (%)
The calculator shows your expected value percentage
Positive EV means long-term profit; negative means loss

Understanding Expected Value

Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical edge on a bet. It tells you how much you can expect to win or lose per dollar wagered over time. A +5% EV means you'll profit $5 for every $100 bet on average.

The key challenge is estimating true probability. Sharp bettors use no-vig lines from sharp books like Pinnacle, compare multiple sources, or build their own models. Even small edges compound significantly with volume.

EV betting is a long-term strategy. You'll have losing days and even losing weeks. But if you consistently bet +EV, math guarantees profit over thousands of bets. Trust the process and track your results.

EV% = (True Probability × Decimal Odds - 1) × 100

Frequently Asked Questions