The Upside Tool Suite, Shown Through Four Winning Slips

The four slips

Str8 Up Gang DFS, Pick6, five for five, $5 into $155.31 at 31x with a 30% boost: Corum under 10.5 carries, Purdy over 3.5 carries, Adams under 4.5 catches, Stafford under 23.5 completions, Nacua under 2.5 rushing yards.

MillEV, Pick6, four for four, $5 into $76.73 at 15.3x: Purdy over 3.5 carries, Adams under 4.5 catches, Kittle under 3.5 catches, Evans over 3.5 catches.

Carlos, Pick6, four for four, $10 into $152.69 at 15.2x: Purdy, Adams, Kittle, Stafford under 23.5 completions.

Pa'z Pickz, Betr, three for three, $10 into $60: Gilbert over 6.5 strikeouts, Kittle under 3.5 catches, Fried over 4.5 strikeouts. Pa'z runs a picks page off these boards and is an Upside affiliate.

Four people, three apps, and Kittle under 3.5 on three of the four cards. That is not a coincidence. It is what happens when the same price is visible to everyone at the same time.

Whale Watch: where the Kittle leg came from

Whale Watch reads the order books on the exchanges (Kalshi, Novig, ProphetX, Pinnacle) and shows where large, price-insensitive money is sitting. At 2:00pm ET on game day it showed $2,017 on Kittle under 3.5 receptions at a fair price of -125, with eighteen books posting the same line.

PrizePicks was charging its flat -119 for that side, which needs 54.3% to break even on a straight bet and about 54.2% per leg on a six-pick flex. The tool read 55.56%. Betr matched the -119; every other sportsbook charged more, out to Caesars at -155. He caught 2.

+EV Sniper: every book, ranked by edge

The Sniper takes every bet on every book you select, computes a fair price from the market, and sorts the whole board by expected value. Set a minimum number of books that must post the market, weight the sharp books higher if you want, and the right hand column names the best book and the value per $100.

It is the first screen of the day because it answers the only question that matters before anything else: where is the price wrong right now?

Player Props Optimizer: the tool behind every slip above

Pick the app you play on, and the optimizer prices every prop on that app's board against the rest of the market. The green figure is the percent to hit. Above the app's break even, the leg belongs on the slip; below it, it does not, however good the player looks.

Same tool, two other apps this week. On Courtside, Marshawn Lloyd under 11.5 rushing attempts at +107 on a 48.5% number, second best price on the row behind Betr's +109. On Betr, Hagen Smith over 2.5 strikeouts at the flat -119 with a 55.4% read, while DraftKings, Caesars, ReBet and Circa charged -138 to -140 for the same over.

Odds Screen and the calculators

The Odds Screen puts every book's price for one market on one row, which is the raw material for all of the above. The no-vig calculator turns a two-sided price into a fair probability, and the implied odds calculator turns any single price into the percent it needs. Those two run on the free side of the site and are enough to check every claim in this article by hand.

What the four slips show

None of the four winners needed a pick. They needed a price they could compare, and a bar it had to clear. Kittle under 3.5 cleared it on three apps at once, which is why it showed up on three cards. Purdy over 3.5 carries and Adams under 4.5 catches were not on our PrizePicks board that day, so those legs were theirs alone.

Winning slips get posted; losing ones with the same process do not. The process is the same either way, and the price is the only part of it a bettor controls.

Frequently asked questions