Original research · October 5, 2026
How to Build a PrizePicks Slip: A Winning 25X, Explained Leg by Leg
By Matt Downs
On Saturday, October 3, 2026, Matt Downs posted a six pick PrizePicks slip for free before any of the games started. On Sunday night the last leg came in and the slip cashed at 25X.
This article walks through how that slip was built. The method is a price check: every leg was compared against what the rest of the betting market was charging for the same outcome, and only the legs that PrizePicks had priced cheaper than the market went on the slip.
The six legs and how each one finished
| Jo Adell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs | 0 | |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin over 0.5 singles | 1 | |
| Garrett Mitchell over 0.5 total bases | 1 | |
| Jacob Misiorowski over 4.5 strikeouts | 6 | |
| Trey McBride under 66.5 receiving yards | 31 | |
| Jared Goff over 34.5 longest completion | 48 |
What a PrizePicks leg has to do to break even
PrizePicks does not show odds on a leg, but its payouts imply a price. On this board every standard leg is priced like a -119 bet, which means a leg has to hit 54.3% of the time for you to break even. For where that number comes from, see how PrizePicks' -119 pricing works.
That one number is the whole test. A leg that hits more often than 54.3% is worth taking and a leg that hits less often is a losing bet over time, however good the player looks. So the real question when you build a slip is how often each leg actually hits, and the best estimate of that comes from the prices other books are charging.
The worked example: Jo Adell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
When the slip was posted, the post pointed at one leg as the example: Jo Adell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. The screenshot below is the Upside props tool with that leg opened, taken before the game.
The tool compared 13 books on that exact under. PrizePicks at -119 was tagged as the best price. DraftKings was charging -132 and Caesars -129. Novig, an exchange where bettors set prices against each other, was at -182 with $329 available. Three other apps were at -140, -144 and -143.
Every other place taking money on that bet was charging more for the under than PrizePicks was. The tool removes the vig from those prices and blends them into one no vig estimate, which came out to 55.3% to hit. That is above the 54.3% PrizePicks needs, so the leg qualified. The no-vig calculator shows how a fair probability is worked out from a pair of odds.
Jo Adell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, one bet, many prices
| PrizePicks | -119 | |
|---|---|---|
| Caesars | -129 | |
| DraftKings | -132 | |
| Three other apps | -140 to -144 | |
| Novig | -182 | |
| No vig chance to hit | 55.3% | |
| PrizePicks break even | 54.3% |
How big the edge really is
55.3% against 54.3% is about a one point edge. The under was still expected to lose close to 45 times out of 100. Adell finished with zero, so it won, but the decision would have been the same if it had lost.
There was no opinion about Jo Adell in that pick. The leg was a price that was cheaper on PrizePicks than everywhere else, and that is the only reason it went on the slip.
Every leg went through the same check
The other five legs were chosen the same way. Each one was opened in the tool, compared against the rest of the market, and kept only if its no vig chance to hit was above what PrizePicks needs. Legs that came up short were left off.
A six pick slip still loses far more often than it wins, even when every leg is priced well, because all six have to hit. One winning slip does not prove a method. What you control is whether each leg was a good price when you took it, and over many slips that is what decides the result. For how payouts change with slip size, see PrizePicks 3 pick vs 6 pick.
Running the same check on a new board
The check works the same way on any day. On the morning of October 5, 2026, the PrizePicks board in the Upside Fantasy Props optimizer showed three legs above 54.3%. Jo Adell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs was on top again at 55.0%, with Novig at -163 and DraftKings at -132 on the same under.
Rows below the break even number show in amber, and those are the legs to skip. Prices move through the day, so the board should be checked again right before you build a slip.
Frequently asked questions
How do you build a good PrizePicks slip?
Check each leg against the prices other sportsbooks and exchanges are charging for the same outcome. Keep only the legs whose no vig chance to hit is above the PrizePicks break even number, which was 54.3% on this board.
What percentage does a PrizePicks leg need to hit?
A standard PrizePicks leg is priced like a -119 bet, so it needs to hit about 54.3% of the time to break even. The exact number depends on the slip type and size.
How do you know if a PrizePicks line is good value?
Compare it to the market. If sportsbooks are charging -130 to -180 for the same side that PrizePicks effectively prices at -119, PrizePicks is the cheapest place to take it.
Does a winning 6 pick slip prove a strategy works?
No. A six pick slip loses much more often than it wins, even with well priced legs. The evidence that matters is whether each leg was taken at a better price than the market, across many slips.
Was the 25X slip posted before the games?
Yes. It was posted publicly on X on October 3, 2026 before the first game started, and it settled on October 4, 2026 at 9:49 PM.