Original research · September 29, 2026
How to Make Money Betting on the NFL: A Real $7,097 Month, Explained
By Matt Downs
Most people who bet the NFL try to make money by picking more winners. TJ Jordan, who helped build Upside, finished September 2026 up $7,097.10 on NFL bets with a record of 85 wins and 168 losses. He lost twice as many bets as he won and still returned 35.39% on what he staked.
That record is possible because profit comes from price, not from win rate. This article walks through the two strategies TJ laid out in his video "How I Made $5,100+ in the First 2 Weeks of the NFL Season", with the real examples he used.
TJ's September 2026 NFL results
| Profit | $7,097.10 | |
|---|---|---|
| ROI | +35.39% | |
| Record | 85-168-2 | |
| Win rate | About 34% | |
| Tracked by | Pikkit (verified) |
How a losing record makes money on NFL bets
A 34% win rate loses money at -110. It makes money when the average price is long enough that each win pays for more than two losses, and when each of those prices is better than the true chance of the outcome. Many of TJ's bets are plus money, so a win at +250 covers two and a half losses at the same stake.
The part that matters is the second condition. Long odds alone do not make money; the market already prices longshots with a margin. What made the month work is that each bet was placed at a price better than the rest of the market, which is what the two strategies below find. For the same idea applied across a full year, see how a bettor with a losing record can still be profitable.
One month is a small sample. A good process has losing months, and a strong month does not prove the process on its own.
Strategy 1: Line shop every NFL bet
Every sportsbook, DFS app and prediction market sets its lines and odds independently, so at any moment one of them is off from the rest. TJ's analogy: five grocery stores, all ten minutes away. Four sell the same bag of Doritos for $5 and one sells it for $3. Nobody drives to a $5 store. Betting the same outcome at a worse price is the same choice.
His player prop example was Marvin Harrison Jr. receiving yards. PrizePicks had the line at 29.5. DraftKings and Betr had 32.5, Underdog 33.5, and books that did list 29.5 priced the over as steep as -175. PrizePicks pays the same whether you pick more or less, so when its line sits three or four yards under the market, the over is cheaper there than anywhere else.
Line shopping NFL game lines
The same thing works on sides and totals. For Panthers vs Browns, the Carolina moneyline was -130 on Novig. FanDuel had -142, DraftKings -148, Kalshi -148, Pinnacle -146, Polymarket -133 and ProphetX -132.
Removing the vig across the market put the fair price at -134, so Novig's -130 was +1.4% expected value. If you want Carolina, laying -142 at FanDuel pays 12 cents less per dollar for the identical outcome. The no-vig calculator shows how the fair price is worked out from a pair of odds.
Carolina Panthers moneyline, one game, many prices
| Novig | -130 | |
|---|---|---|
| ProphetX | -132 | |
| Polymarket | -133 | |
| No vig fair price | -134 | |
| FanDuel | -142 | |
| Pinnacle | -146 | |
| DraftKings / Kalshi | -148 |
Strategy 2: Follow sharp money on exchanges and prediction markets
Sharp bettors get limited at recreational books like FanDuel and DraftKings, sometimes to a few dollars a bet. So they move to peer to peer exchanges and prediction markets like Novig, ProphetX, Kalshi and Polymarket, which do not limit winning accounts. That makes large positions on those markets a useful signal: someone putting tens of thousands of dollars on one side usually has a reason.
TJ's example from Whale Watch: $67,730 bet on Tatiana Prozorova at +104 on Polymarket, with the same side available at +155 on Fliff. The example is tennis, but the method is sport-agnostic, and TJ said following large money on Novig accounted for more than $3,100 of his first $5,100 of the NFL season. Tailing is only worth it at a price at least as good as the one the sharp bettor took. For a player prop version of this, see how to follow sharp money on player props.
Putting it together for an NFL Sunday
Both strategies answer the same question: is this price better than the market's estimate of the outcome? Line shopping finds the book that is off. Sharp money tells you where informed money thinks the price should be. Neither requires handicapping matchups or last five game logs.
Size every bet small relative to your bankroll, because a process that wins 34% of the time will have long losing stretches. The Kelly calculator is one way to size bets once you trust your estimates. For more methods on the same slate, see NFL betting strategies that work.
Frequently asked questions
Can you make money betting on the NFL?
Yes, but not by picking winners more often than the market. Profit comes from betting prices that are better than the true chance of the outcome, found by comparing many books and markets. TJ went 85-168-2 in September 2026 and still profited $7,097.10.
How can you be profitable with a losing record?
If your bets are mostly plus money and each price beats the fair price, each win pays for more than one loss. A 34% win rate is profitable at long enough odds, and a 55% win rate can lose money at bad prices.
What is line shopping in NFL betting?
Line shopping means checking every book, DFS app and prediction market for the same bet and taking the best number. Books set lines independently, so one is often off from the rest, like PrizePicks at 29.5 receiving yards when others had 32.5 to 33.5.
What is sharp money and should you follow it?
Sharp money is large betting volume from bettors with a track record of beating the market. Because recreational books limit them, it shows up on exchanges and prediction markets. Following it can help, but only at a price as good as or better than the one they took.
Is one profitable month proof a strategy works?
No. A month of a few hundred bets is a small sample. The evidence that matters is whether you consistently get better prices than the fair market price over many bets.