How to Make Money on Novig: Two Methods, Two Real Results
By Matt Downs · October 7, 2026
Two Upside members posted Novig results in the same week of October 2026. One followed $575,100 of whale money onto the Tampa Bay Rays and turned $75 into $161.29. The other shared a verified card showing $6,253.90 in profit on Novig alone this year, on a record of 242 wins and 220 losses.
They used two different methods. The first is following large bets that other people have already placed on prediction markets. The second is finding a Novig price that is better than the fair price everywhere else. This article walks through both, with each member's own screenshots and then a live example of the same method from October 7, 2026.
Two members, two ways to profit on Novig
| DT | $75 paid $161.29 | Followed $575.1k of whale money on the Rays moneyline at +115 |
|---|---|---|
| Cine | +$6,253.90 in 2026 | 242-220-1 on Novig, +7.20% ROI, betting prices that are off market |
Why Novig is different from a sportsbook
Novig is a prediction market. You are trading against other people, and there is no house on the other side setting the line and building its margin into both prices. Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX work the same way.
Prices on Novig are written as a percentage. A price of 46.5% is the same thing as +115 in American odds, and the implied odds calculator converts one to the other. You profit over time when the true chance of the outcome is higher than the percentage you paid.
That structure creates two opportunities. Sharp bettors who get limited at regular sportsbooks move their volume to these markets, where the size of their bets is visible. And because prices come from people trading with each other, a Novig price is sometimes better than what every sportsbook is charging for the same bet.
Method 1: follow the whale money
On the morning of October 5, 2026, Whale Watch showed $575.1k of large bets behind the Tampa Bay Rays to beat the Yankees. The same card showed the Rays were still available on Novig at +115, with $7.1k sitting at that price.
DT put $75 on the Rays at 46.5%. The Rays won 5 to 2 and the ticket paid $161.29. His summary afterwards: "Whale Watch showed where the money was at… follow it."
The idea is the one behind following sharp money on player props. There is no handicapping of the game involved. The signal is that someone was willing to risk a very large amount at a known price, and the check is whether you can still get that price or better.
How to read a whale play, step by step
Here is the same tool at 12:52 PM Eastern on October 7, 2026. Each card on the left is a play with large bets behind it. Clicking a card opens the individual bets and every venue where that side is still available.
The top play was Iowa to beat Washington on Friday night, with $711.8k of whale money behind it.
What the break-even line means
Each bar is a real bet. The two large green bars are $499,663 on Iowa at +150 and $211,086 at +156, and both were placed on Kalshi.
Everything above the break-even line took the same price or a worse price than the best one still available. That is the money the tool counts as behind the play. The gray bars below the line are bets that got a better price than what is left, such as the $303,519 at +163, so they are shown and left out of the total.
This matters because a whale bet only tells you something if you can match it. Someone who got +163 saw a better deal than the one on the board now.
Where to place it
The Where To Bet list lines up every venue on both sides. The best Iowa price was +156 at Tailgate with $47.8k available, and that is the price the tool rated as a +2.4% edge. Novig was +150 with $1.2k available, which is the same price the $499,663 bet took.
The working rule is simple. Take a play when you can get a price at least as good as the one the large money took, and take it at whichever venue on the list gives you the best number. For DT on October 5 that venue was Novig. Once the price moves past what the whales got, the edge they saw is gone.
Method 2: bet Novig prices that are off market
Cine's 2026 card on Novig shows $6,253.90 in profit at +7.20% ROI. The record is 242 wins and 220 losses, so he is winning only a little more than half of his bets. The profit comes from the price he gets on each one.
He has described the method himself: "I use a top down approach, compare prices across sharp sportsbooks + other prediction markets, remove the vig, and look for numbers that are off-market."
Top down means the market sets the fair price and you look for one venue paying more than that. By hand, you would open a dozen books and run each pair of prices through a no-vig calculator. The Optimizer does that comparison for every bet on the board and sorts by the size of the edge.
Reading one row
The column under the Novig logo is Novig's price, and the dollar figure under it is how much is available at that price. EV is the edge. TO HIT is the fair chance of the bet winning once the vig is removed from the other books, with the fair price underneath.
At 12:57 PM Eastern on October 7, 2026, Jackson Merrill under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs was -108 on Novig with $4.6K available. A -108 price needs to win 51.9% of the time to break even. The tool had the bet winning 53.4% of the time, a fair price of -115. Put those two numbers into the EV calculator and you get an edge of about 2.9%.
Jackson Merrill under 1.5 H+R+RBI, October 7, 2026
| Novig | -108 | $4.6K available, +2.9% EV |
|---|---|---|
| Fair price | -115 | 53.4% to hit |
| Kalshi | -126 | $316 available |
| DraftKings | -134 | |
| Caesars | -134 | |
| Fliff | -145 |
Check the dollars available along with the edge
Every other venue offering that bet was charging -126 or worse, and Novig had it at -108. That is what an off market number looks like.
The top row on the board that day had a larger edge, +4.9%, and only $37 available at the price. An edge you cannot get money down on is not worth much, which is why the Merrill row with $4.6K behind it was the better example. On a prediction market the price exists only while someone is offering it, so the dollars available belong in the decision.
What to expect from this style of betting
None of these bets is close to a sure thing. A 2.9% edge at -108 still loses about 47 times out of 100. Iowa at +156 with a 2.4% edge loses about 6 times out of 10. DT's Rays bet at 46.5% was priced to lose slightly more often than it wins.
The profit shows up over volume. Cine's card has more than 460 bets on it, and a small edge repeated that many times is what produced the $6,253.90. How many bets it takes for an edge to show is covered in sports betting variance and how many bets you need.
Two limits on the evidence here. Two members posting good results is not proof that a method works, and people share wins more readily than losses. The stronger test is whether each bet was placed at a price better than fair, which is something you can check on the screen before you bet.
Frequently asked questions
Can you make money on Novig?
Yes, if you consistently get prices better than the fair market price. One member in this article is up $6,253.90 on Novig in 2026 at a 7.20% ROI on a 242-220-1 record. The profit comes from price, since he wins only slightly more than half of his bets.
Is Novig a sportsbook or a prediction market?
Novig is a prediction market. You trade against other people instead of betting against a house, and prices are shown as percentages. A price of 46.5% is the same as +115 in American odds.
What is whale money in sports betting?
Whale money is very large bets placed by individual bettors, usually on exchanges and prediction markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig and ProphetX where bet sizes are visible. Following it means betting the same side at the same price or a better one.
How do you find positive EV bets on Novig?
Compare Novig's price to the fair price from the rest of the market. Remove the vig from the sharp sportsbooks and other prediction markets, blend them into one fair chance, and bet when Novig pays more than that. In the example in this article Novig offered -108 on a bet with a fair price of -115.
How much edge should a Novig bet have?
The examples in this article ran from about 0.9% to 2.9%. Edges that small lose often on any single bet, so they only add up across many bets at a consistent size. Check how many dollars are available at the price too, since a large edge with $37 behind it cannot be bet in any size.
Do you need to win most of your bets to profit on Novig?
No. A bettor who wins 52% of bets placed at prices better than fair can show a solid profit, and plus money bets can be profitable while losing more often than they win. What matters is the price paid compared with the true chance of the outcome.